In the pre referendum days, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) had become a devastatingly potent political competitor and the referendum vote being that glue that held its leading lights together.

Like Icarius in Greek Mythology Raila, Ruto and Kalonzo have began their respective flight into the political sun. Will the politics of survival melt the glue in their wings? Probably not, but then again, the individual political egos in the key players of the ODM has the capacity to implode from within itself due to the combustive forces of the individual presidential ambitions of the three or four key players; By the law of Political Physics, the impatient political volcano in each presidential candidate has began its ominous rumble and most will erupt in a mighty explosion and with it may go the ODM fairy tale.

There is little dispute even amongst die hard Kibaki supporters that while still glued together, the ODM could deliver a devastating defeat to the Kibaki incumbency in a General election in terms not dissimilar to the November 2005 referendum whitewash.

The Rift valley ethnic block has began the political restlessness by the Eldama Ravine declaration. Of note, Moses Cheboi, and other notable pro-Biwott MPs spoke favourably of a Ruto presidency. It is these respective ethnic forces that impel their respective sons into declaring interest in nomination of their parties for the presidential election.

Uhuru Kenyatta no doubt expended blood and treasure in the referendum campaign and now expects political payback or some other suitable form of return on his political investment in the form of nomination as presidential torch bearer if not of the ODM then of KANU.

Without a formal party like structure to quantify the members collective will as to who should be presidential candidate for the ODM, key players have ran back to their mother parties for solace. In KANU, Ruto found Uhuru in the political bedroom and he ran back to his ethnic base to illustrate that the political base of KANU was under lock and key and Ruto was given the key at Eldama Ravine despite Mzee Moi’s contrary prescription. Even Gideon Moi’s language on phone from London cleverly avoids showing any enthusiasm for the Ruto candidacy but would it matter anyway?

What is the on the other side of the political divide? The Kibaki relection bid will without doubt be anchored on a strong Kikuyu ethnic base that number 33% of the 11 million or so voters. To this it is hoped to add the numbers that other NAK friendly Party Chiefs like Honourable Musikari Kombo (FORD K), Kipruto Kirwa (UDM) and Charity Ngilu (NPK) Paul Muite (Safina) may bring to the table. It is doubtful whether the president will bother to seek Nyachae, Maalim Mohammed or such other Johnny come lately spare tyres in the NARC administration for their ethnic vote

What does Honourable Kombo and Ford Kenya offer to a Kibaki re election bid? In a sentence, 40% of the vote in Western Kenya and some pockets of votes in North Rift particularly Turkana Trans Nzoia and Kapenguria. The challenges to Kombo’s hold on this 40 % include the insurgency of Honourable Kituyi, and Kulundu..
Kombo’s shot at the presidency candidacy with this meager 48% of his ethnic base can only be realistic if the two large ethnic blocks endorse his candidature and release their blood and treasure to his political war chest. Barring some 21st century political miracle, it is unlikely that Kombo can attract endorsement from their talisman in chief. The Kikuyu have refused to say anything even tangentially complimentary about Kombo or the prospects of his candidacy.

Political convention has divided Kenya into two blocks. In this public mindset, Western province, Nyanza Rift valley and Nairobi are considered one political Block, while the other block is Central, Eastern, and Coast. North Eastern is a peripheral factor in this division.

It is this division that has informed Kenyatta’s from central appointing Jaramogi as Vice President, (Murumbi was a reluctant participant in the scheme and resigned) Moi shared power with Central’s Karanja, South Rift Valley’s Saitoti, and Mudavadi only got the nod in preparation to share power with Central’s Uhuru Kenyatta in the now famous Uhuru project.

Applying this political precedent to the current scenario, Kibaki cannot use Ngilu or anybody from the coast as running mate his choice is limited to Nyanza Western of Rift Valley and Kombo has the minimum numbers and MPS to fit the Bill.

In KANU if Ruto were to run would he propose Uhuru as his ice president? No he would not, because it is believed that the Kikuyu are not listening keenly to Uhurus political message unless he is presidential candidate himself.




Henry Wasilwa Advocate
Box 4253, Kisumu
wasilwa_makhakara at yahoo.com