Friday, June 19, 2009

In the pre referendum days, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) had become a devastatingly potent political competitor and the referendum vote being that glue that held its leading lights together.

Like Icarius in Greek Mythology Raila, Ruto and Kalonzo have began their respective flight into the political sun. Will the politics of survival melt the glue in their wings? Probably not, but then again, the individual political egos in the key players of the ODM has the capacity to implode from within itself due to the combustive forces of the individual presidential ambitions of the three or four key players; By the law of Political Physics, the impatient political volcano in each presidential candidate has began its ominous rumble and most will erupt in a mighty explosion and with it may go the ODM fairy tale.

There is little dispute even amongst die hard Kibaki supporters that while still glued together, the ODM could deliver a devastating defeat to the Kibaki incumbency in a General election in terms not dissimilar to the November 2005 referendum whitewash.

The Rift valley ethnic block has began the political restlessness by the Eldama Ravine declaration. Of note, Moses Cheboi, and other notable pro-Biwott MPs spoke favourably of a Ruto presidency. It is these respective ethnic forces that impel their respective sons into declaring interest in nomination of their parties for the presidential election.

Uhuru Kenyatta no doubt expended blood and treasure in the referendum campaign and now expects political payback or some other suitable form of return on his political investment in the form of nomination as presidential torch bearer if not of the ODM then of KANU.

Without a formal party like structure to quantify the members collective will as to who should be presidential candidate for the ODM, key players have ran back to their mother parties for solace. In KANU, Ruto found Uhuru in the political bedroom and he ran back to his ethnic base to illustrate that the political base of KANU was under lock and key and Ruto was given the key at Eldama Ravine despite Mzee Moi’s contrary prescription. Even Gideon Moi’s language on phone from London cleverly avoids showing any enthusiasm for the Ruto candidacy but would it matter anyway?

What is the on the other side of the political divide? The Kibaki relection bid will without doubt be anchored on a strong Kikuyu ethnic base that number 33% of the 11 million or so voters. To this it is hoped to add the numbers that other NAK friendly Party Chiefs like Honourable Musikari Kombo (FORD K), Kipruto Kirwa (UDM) and Charity Ngilu (NPK) Paul Muite (Safina) may bring to the table. It is doubtful whether the president will bother to seek Nyachae, Maalim Mohammed or such other Johnny come lately spare tyres in the NARC administration for their ethnic vote

What does Honourable Kombo and Ford Kenya offer to a Kibaki re election bid? In a sentence, 40% of the vote in Western Kenya and some pockets of votes in North Rift particularly Turkana Trans Nzoia and Kapenguria. The challenges to Kombo’s hold on this 40 % include the insurgency of Honourable Kituyi, and Kulundu..
Kombo’s shot at the presidency candidacy with this meager 48% of his ethnic base can only be realistic if the two large ethnic blocks endorse his candidature and release their blood and treasure to his political war chest. Barring some 21st century political miracle, it is unlikely that Kombo can attract endorsement from their talisman in chief. The Kikuyu have refused to say anything even tangentially complimentary about Kombo or the prospects of his candidacy.

Political convention has divided Kenya into two blocks. In this public mindset, Western province, Nyanza Rift valley and Nairobi are considered one political Block, while the other block is Central, Eastern, and Coast. North Eastern is a peripheral factor in this division.

It is this division that has informed Kenyatta’s from central appointing Jaramogi as Vice President, (Murumbi was a reluctant participant in the scheme and resigned) Moi shared power with Central’s Karanja, South Rift Valley’s Saitoti, and Mudavadi only got the nod in preparation to share power with Central’s Uhuru Kenyatta in the now famous Uhuru project.

Applying this political precedent to the current scenario, Kibaki cannot use Ngilu or anybody from the coast as running mate his choice is limited to Nyanza Western of Rift Valley and Kombo has the minimum numbers and MPS to fit the Bill.

In KANU if Ruto were to run would he propose Uhuru as his ice president? No he would not, because it is believed that the Kikuyu are not listening keenly to Uhurus political message unless he is presidential candidate himself.




Henry Wasilwa Advocate
Box 4253, Kisumu
wasilwa_makhakara at yahoo.com
HENRY MAKHAKARA WASILWA
KENYA NATIONAL ASSURANCE HOUSE,
9TH FLOOR,
JOMO KENYATTA HIGHWAY
POST OFFICE BOX 4253,
TELEPHONE 254 57 2021469
0721245562/0733703735

Koigi’s piece on the Attorney General n the press on Monday the 30th May 2005 sent my political hormones into extreme overdrive. The last time that happened to me, the Twin Towers in New York had been felled by a pilot who the Americans told the world were Arabs. There is this attractive (See Newsweek October 2003) conspiracy theory about a self inflicted blow to the heart of the American defence that is supposed to have been inspired American defence contractors who thought the President was a little sluggish in increasing defence spending on their little military toys called smart bombs. Each costs 2 billion US $. To provoke some energy in the Washington ranks, Americans were treated to the most horrific tragedy of the century yet those who sponsored the whole scheme did it purely to scare the federal Government to buy their military products. I have always hoped that this is just imagination and only a theory but you never know.

Honourable Koigi thinks that if you sacked Amos Wako today large quantities of Kenya’s problems would disappear with Tsitswila’s departure at Sheria House. I do not have a care in the world about Amos Wako nor the quality of his tenure whilst he served as AG but it shakes me out of my skin when Koigi constructs falsehoods out of mal-digested facts and distortions of our real problems.

I state with the authority of the Constitution that The Attorney General is simply an organ of the executive branch of government, the other branches being the Legislature and the Judiciary. The executive branch of government has the President; the Cabinet the, Civil service the police and the Attorney General chambers

As a check against abuse and excessive use of power, the three branches are largely independent in Kenya.

There is however an institutional or operational overlap, for example when the cabinet which is part of the executive, also makes Law through subsidiary legislation under Statutory powers made for instance. the "Michuki Rules" or Rules regulating interest rates ( Minister of Finance through the Governor of the CBK, or when the Chief Justice as part of the Judiciary makes Rules for the Practice of Courts or the remuneration of Lawyers yet he is not the Legislature. This overlaps have a utilitative purpose; it saves time and expense.

Calling for the dismissal of the AG as a panacea to the myriad of problems befuddling Kenya is as deficient in its understanding of the separation of powers as it is brazen in its disregard for common sense.

The AG does not mete out Justice. He has no such role duty or obligation. Even he had such a commodity for discretionary distribution, the process of its dispensation would not be described by the word “meted”. Justice is so intrinsic a Human Right that its enjoyment by a citizen is independent of and not predicated upon the latitude or discretion of an AG or any other public servant. In any event, Justice is guaranteed by a Social Contract and it is a natural right. Human persons are only entrusted to see to its enjoyment.

If he were to abuse such a privilege various legal instruments would stop the AG. In the early 80’s when the AG attempted to unfairly prosecute Stephen Mureithi, formerly a Special Branch Officer, another Branch of Government designed to check abuse of executive power stopped the offending Prosecution. Lawyers will recall the case of The Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police exparte Blackburn in which the powers of the State to curtail the liberty of the subject through arbitrary arrests and prosecutions was halted by the High Court in England. Now we have the instrument of Prohibition which is available to a persons who feel aggrieved by a decision that he or she thinks is made against one without jurisdiction or in excess of jurisdiction and is even available where the decision sought to be inhibited is proved to be actuated by improper motive, purpose collateral to Justice, or is contaminated by an ulterior motive. In This instance, Courts will generally issue an Order to prohibit the intended decision, and if it is already made, the Court will quash such a decision by an Order called Certiorari. One is also able to compel a public officer or a Public duty to do its duty by the instrument of Mandamus.

Koigi allows the subjectivity of his analysis to generate falsehoods such as “Wako ..presided over the transformation of houses of justices into kangaroo Courts

Whether in the Kenyatta regime, the Moi era or the present Kibaki incumbency, the architects of dictatorship would never be an AG. Never ! The AG may just be a cog in the wheel of a rogue government entrenching itself by monolithism and other schemes to aggregate power to itself but the moment an AG attempts to inspire a scheme to germinate such dictatorship that gravitates around the AG, the presidency would notice and respond ruthlessly. If you doubt my thesis, ask one Sir Charles Njonjo.

The only single component or organ of the executive Branch of Government that can directly institutionalize dictatorship is the Presidency itself and thus far there is no tangible evidence to displace the hardcore fact that this presidency has done three critical things that in themselves deflect the centrality and aggregation of political power.

Firstly Cabinet portfolios have been permitted their full constitutional text and substance containing a full cocktail of financial, administrative and operational authority, power, and latitude..
The trickle down effect of such devolution and sharing of executive authority is transmitted through to the Civil Service, the Disciplined Forces, the State Corporations and other agencies of government.
I doubt very much if there is a cabinet Minister out there who is unable to exercise his or her Constitutional mandate because the AG has advised Kibaki to aggregated power to himself?. Honourable Koigi do you know of any?

Secondly, this particular presidency and the Government in general has, (though it could do better), has deliberately set aside an admirable quantity of the national budget by way of devolved funding to Constituencies and by this scheme, local communities through which local communities and not the president or his cabinet now possess and exercise financial authority over nearly 21 billion Kenya shillings over 5 years. That various community leaders abuse this financial authority does not take away from the executive’s resolve to devolve and share power with regions and communities.

Thirdly, through direct allocation of national resources to Local Authorities, localized power is deflected away from the presidency and the executive branch of government.

In a direct way therefore, this government has been able to impact positively on the triad of poverty disease and ignorance. There is room for improvement though

There however is a very critical and emergent need for an immediate moral regeneration in our community. This will be the largest most critical factor in reversing social and economic decay. It will reconstitute and firm up desecrated social values. In turn this will be reflected in the quality of persons occupying positions of trust and leadership. Inexorably the quality of distribution of national resources will no longer depend on whether one supports a powerful PM or Presidency but on a self driven pursuit of fairness and equity amongst leaders. This innate trait will flow from inside the leaders it will not be imposed by a constitution a constitution will only capture and record for reference those positive manifestations of good governance. No amount of constitutional reform of whatever nature will ever be surrogate for moral firmity in the community who consume such constitutional dispensation.

I will explain; Not too long ago before their social values were replaced and contaminated by those from Falcon Crest or the Bold and the Beautiful and other TV generated social values, a Bukusu would irreversibly seal the act of selling his land to another person with a mere handshake and an infectious smile. He would probably get a few heads of cattle in exchange. No paper no MOU no contract in lofty prose would record the event! Yet one hardly heard of disagreements afterwards despite the absence of MOU’s

At present, a casual glance of the civil registry at the High Court in Bungoma reveals that 75% of the cases filed involve people who sold land and then changed their minds. In most, if not all, are documentary exhibits containing exquisitely drafted agreements of sale drawn by all sorts of elegant lawyers. The documentary record of a sale transaction does not seem to guarantee completion of the transaction.

The lesson here is that it is not the nature or quality of the documentary agreement of sale that ensures and guarantees satisfactory completion and enjoyment of proprietary rights. It was always the integrity of the contracting parties that ensured completion.

Constitutional reform or sacking an AG will never guarantee the output that Koigi deludes himself with. Think moral regeneration. Start with yourself and encourage everybody at the family level, community and regional level. The aggregate effect of such regeneration of values on most of our “social” or “economic” problems can be of atomic proportions. The considered conclusions the “Earth Summit” at Rio de Janeiro and Jo’burg recently on this issue cannot be wrong. can they, Honorable Koigi?


Henry Makhakara Wasilwa

conflict between the Kenyan State and its peasantry

How do you explain to a hunger stricken peasant in Yatta, Kitui, or any other poverty stricken people of Kenya why, their family or community are unable to have a decent meal in Kenya; do you tell them that globalization and fate has consigned them to their misfortune? Or that good fortune is the reason why inhabitants in Muthaiga feed their dogs with expensive dog meal from the supermarket?

Some of these people in the country side now suffering, hunger, disease, and abject deprivation remember the unusual speed with which government business is conducted when for example, President Kibaki was sworn in at dusk in just a few minutes or how in a few minutes MPs voted to raise their pay higher than that of the House of Lords in England; One understands peasants’ impatience and unga-slogans when they are asked by bellicose ministers to give the government more time (after squandering 6 years) to effect changes that are meaningful to ordinary folk who regularly have to strip wild trees of its unpalatable bitter wild berries and boil it on an inefficient wood fire to feed their hungry children who will never go beyond the now impotent (“free” primary school) standard eight class.

Mutui Museo, or “good neighbour” is the tribal initiative to plead with wealthy and relatively rich members of a certain tribe and their friends to finance the purchase and free distribution of seed, and install irrigation infrastructure in the arid part of Kenya inhabited mainly by that tribe to ensure a continuity of subsistence food even during droughts.

This philanthropy is commendable but knee jerk and reactionary and it depends on mercy rather than deliberate government policy to ensure survival of the marginalized lot in Kenya. Mercy is not a constant but pro-poor budgetary policy can be caste into policy as a constant in socio-economic dynamics The only reason why every citizen ceded his or her individual right to a central or local government is so that that one does not have to wait for a guilty conscious member of parliament to massage his tribe’s reluctant Upper class into ceding a meagre portion of their (often ill- gotten) fortune to buy food or seed for hungry peasants in the countryside. Caroline Mutoko of Kiss100, who has caught the attention of Kofi Annan as a voice of the masses, has often done the same thing but decidedly asks of and benefits all Kenyans. 

The Solutions to perennial hunger, disease and poverty is not hidden from the Government , it lies in Government documents gathering dust; How do you explain why there is a permanent disconnect between radical reforms in resource distribution and the Government’s reluctance to execute those reforms ?

In December 2007, the people of Kenya thought that by replacing 80% of their elected representatives by new and progressive members of parliament, the problem would be solved. 

What emerged is that the power to execute these radical reforms is vested not in a powerless prime minister, but in just one member of parliament called a president who owes a debt of gratitude to shadowy players in commerce and industry as well as big capital more than he feels indebted to the millions of ordinary people who elected him; To execute popular reforms would be to strike at the heart of vested interests of big capital and their shadowy owners.  
Is it possible to propel one from the middle class to be of executive presidency, and immunize him or her from the intoxicating influence of big capital? Has Africa seen this happen, where such a presidency takes revenue from big Capital and tax from the middle class and applies it to resource poor regions of the country ?

To do this, such a person has to have real moral (and not tribal or regional) courage and wind in his sail to ignore and withstand the tempest of exclusivist posturing of big capital. only then can one slant budgetary distribution in favour of arid and marginalised areas, and apply unusual quantum of national income to pro- poor social amenities and opportunity creating initiatives. Doing this would undermine or destroy the grand capitalist state and its patron-in-chief, an executive presidency and this is the reason for the inability and reluctance of the current Government (composed of a mongrel of big anti-reform ministers there to protect and entrench old money and new capital and a smattering of pro-reform but impotent ministers without even the power to purchase a manual typewriter without the head of civil service approval) I request anybody reading this to enrich and distil this idea, hone its rough edges, all but for one purpose...in the short term, to identify alternative national leadership and in the long term to guarantee socio-economic and trans-generational equity.

My personal objective bias is a 46 year old bearded chap whose name I shall temporarily withhold from political sharks. He is top of my list for Interim President 2012-2104, If it should come to pass , during his term, he must consciously, amongst many other reforms dismantle the executive presidency and recede into a nominal presidency within a year and hand over within two years to a new power matrix based on a new constitution that will have dispersed power to constitutional institutions other than the presidency.
Over 25 years, I have seen enough of this man and his woman to confirm that both are resistant to the smell of cheap opportunity, (declined to be appointed to public office several times) he will tirelessly repel bad friends and their odious influence from his circle, (ask me) and his nervous system does not react to and is immune to the exciting effects of creature comforts; ( I laughed him out of town before he reluctantly, and quite recently agreed to buy a television set, which features only 4 free channels ), he saw no reason to change the rustic and well worn (only) sofa set he inherited from his retired father at Woodley only until the other day when he gave it away. He and his wife lost a child very early in marriage and they have known and processed grief in its extreme form. The couple have confronted and reconciled with the limits of their humanness in their respective families.

His service greater than self interest is documented in his Quaker (Friends) Church roots, and in his non denominational fellowship where he has endlessly served as elder, and at Rotary, and other thankless theatres of philanthropy. He paid his taxes so well that he now chairs the local tax committee. Let the interrogation begin and let’s have other names and reasons before we open them up to the ruthless interrogation necessary to come to a wise destination. Ignore the lynch mob.


Makhakara H.W hmwasilwa@gmail.com 0721245562 0733703735